SPRUCE VI

June 15-19, 2003
Centre for Mathematical Sciences
Lund University with Lund Institute of Technology

Friday June 13: Last-minute changes in programme...

The sixth conference on Statistics in Public Resources and Utilities, and in Care of the Environment (SPRUCE) will be hosted by the Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Lund University with Lund Institute of Technology June 15-19 2003. The conference deals with Statistics for the analysis of risks and benefits from the environment and the instrument for this is Statistical models and methods for environmental issues.

The conference will include sessions on:
Applications

Air and soil pollution

Climate change

Energy planning and supply

Health effects

Impact of human activities in the presence of natural variation

Ocean transportation and marine environment

Official statistics, legal aspects, rules

Water resource planning

Waste managing

Toxicology

Methodological themes

Databased mechanistic models

Dose-response type models

Environmental sampling and monitoring

Extremes

Nonlinear modeling

Spatio-temporal models

Time series

Image: Paitner Erik Lundgren
Painter: Erik Lundgren

Welcome!

SPRUCE

The SPRUCE initiative is concerned with Statistics in Public Resources and Utilities and in Care of the Environment. It was established in 1990 and it is an internationally coordinated effort to bring together statisticians, probabilists, and other scientists in the fields of protection and conservation of the environment, the safeguarding and garnering of resources, and the safe and reliable supply of energy. Areas of study include water resources; coal and oil; nuclear plant; industrial effluent; agriculture and the food chain; climatology; pollution and risk; ecological factors; epidemiological effects; fisheries and oceanography; and environmental monitoring. Techniques include data analysis, probability, modelling and statistical methodology.

SPRUCE encourages and supports research and development work. It has organised major international conferences in Lisbon (Portugal), Rothamsted (UK), Merida (Mexico), Enschede (The Netherlands) and most recently Sheffield (UK) in 2000. The conferences have covered various themes in environmental statistics including health, pollution and water-related issues. The proceedings from the conferences have been published by John Wiley and Sons in a series of texts Statistics for the Environment (edited by V. Barnett, F. Turkman and A. Stein). More details can be found on the home page http://spruce.deio.fc.ul.pt/.

The sixth SPRUCE conference will be arranged in 2003 by the division for Mathematical Statistics at the Centre for Mathematical Sciences in Lund June 15-19, 2003. The conference home page is http://www.maths.lth.se/conferences/spruceVI/.

Programme

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The registration and all plenary sessions are in the Auditorium (Swe. Hörsalen) in the basement floor of Kårhuset, which is approximately 200 meters away from the Centre for Mathematical Sciences. All contributed talks are in Lecture hall A, B and C at the entrance of the Centre for Mathematical Science.

Changes (Friday June 13)
Lars Bärring's talk (Mon) is moved to the Climate session (Wed 15.00).
Gudmund Høst's talk (Wed 10.00) will be given by Anders Løland.
John Haslett's talk (Wed 15.30) will be given by Sourabh Bhattacharya.

Map of Centre of Mathematical Sciences and Kårhuset

For your convenience, all abstracts are available as a single document (ps, pdf, or as two-up 2up ps, 2up pdf [230-380kb]).

Sunday June 15
15.00-16.30	Registration Auditorium, Kårhuset
16.30-16.45	Vic Barnett and Klas Malmqvist Conference opening Auditorium, Kårhuset
16.45-17.45	Peter Guttorp Where is environmental statistics going? Auditorium, Kårhuset
18.00-19.30	Reception with drinks and snack meals Gasquesalen, Kårhuset

Monday June 16
08.00-09.00	Registration Auditorium, Kårhuset
09.00-09.50	Jonathan Tawn Dependence issues in problems of environmental extremes Auditorium, Kårhuset
10.00-10.50	Georg Lindgren Satellite surveillance and stochastic modelling of ocean conditions Auditorium, Kårhuset
10.50-11.20	Coffee Kårhuset
11.20-12.10	Mark Berliner Physical-statistical modelling and prediction Auditorium, Kårhuset
12.10-13.40	Lunch
13.40-14.30	Richard Smith Nonstationary spatial models in climatology and air pollution Auditorium, Kårhuset
14.30-15.00	Coffee with fruit Centre for Mathematical Sciences
15.00-17.25	Contributed sessions Part I
15.00-16.55	Contributed session: Extreme values 15.00 Clive Anderson, Continuous-Time Extremes from Discrete-Time Observations 15.30 Marilia Antunes, An Optimal Alarm System for Ozone Levels Exceedances 16.00 Amy Grady, An Extreme Value Theory of U.S. Rainfall 16.30 Nader Tajvidi, Parametric and Nonparametric Analysis of Temporal Trend in Extreme Values with Applications to Wind Storm Losses and Temperature Data Lecture hall A, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
15.00-17.25	Contributed session: Water quality 15.00 Franz Konecny, Transport in Groundwater Flow: Simulations and Applications to Environmental Risk Assessment 15.30 Lieven Clement, Statistical Validation of Water Quality Data 16.00 Anders Nordgård, Impact of sampling frequency on the power of nonparametric tests for water quality trends 16.30 Mohamad Hussian, A generic procedure for simultaneous estimation of monotone trends and seasonal patterns in time series of environmental data 17.00 Lena Zetterqvist, Teaching environmental statistics Lecture hall B, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
15.00-17.25	Contributed session: Air quality & Indicators 15.00 A. Fasso, Asymmetric multivariate control charts for air quality monitoring 15.30 Torgny Lindström, Analysis of LIDAR fields using nonparametric kernel regression methods 16.00 Ranjan Maitra, Indexing Environmental Quality Indicators: A Multiple Criteria Decision-making Approach 16.30 Justin Iheakanwa, Modelling and Analyzing Spatial-Temporal Environmental Data 17.00 Salim Lardjane, Determinism is not a curse: optimal speed invariant density estimation for chaotic dynamical systems Lecture hall C, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
17.25-17.45	Coffee Centre for Mathematical Sciences
17.45-19.10	Contributed sessions Part II
17.45-18.45	Contributed session: Oceanography 17.45 S.M. Barbosa, Time series analysis of sea level data 18.15 Anders Malmberg, Assessement of Meteorological Model Error Lecture hall A, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
17.45-18.45	Contributed session: Deposition 17.45 Ragnar Huseby, Bayesian Calibration of an acidificaton model with application to risk assessment of acid deposition 18.15 Rognvald I Smith, Models and measurement comparisons: an issue with national and continental scale models for air pollutant deposition Lecture hall B, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
17.45-19.10	Contributed session: Geostatistics 17.45 Christiano Varin, Pairwise Likelihood Inference in Spatial Generalized Linear Mixed Models 18.15 Linda Werner, Bayesian Markov random field modelling for spatial data 18.45 Martin Sköld, Robust MCMC methods for a geostatistical model Lecture hall C, Centre for Mathematical Sciences

Tuesday June 17
09.00-12.00	TIES: IMPACT - Estimation of Human Impact in the Presence of Natural Fluctuations
09.00-09.25	Anders Grimvall Environmental objectives, interim targets and assessment of goal achievement Auditorium, Kårhuset
09.30-09.55	Claudia Libiseller Model selection for ozone normalisation using regional-scale meteorological variables Auditorium, Kårhuset
10.00-10.50	Hans Wackernagel Selective geostatistics for environmental problems Auditorium, Kårhuset
10.50-11.10	Coffee Kårhuset
11.10-12.00	Andreas Hense On the use of statistics in complex weather and climate models Auditorium, Kårhuset
12.00-13.15	Lunch
13.15-22.00	Conference trip to the Island of Hven 13.15 Bus leaves for the boat in Landskrona 14.15 Boat departure to Hven 21.00 Boat leaves from Hven 21.30 Bus leaves for Lund

Wednesday June 18
09.00-09.50	Åke Johansson Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections Auditorium, Kårhuset
10.00-10.50	Anders Løland (replaces Gudmund Høst) Spatial and temporal aspects of modelling fish abundance Auditorium, Kårhuset
10.50-11.20	Coffee Kårhuset
11.20-12.10	Antti Penttinen Characterizing, modelling and interpreting spatial association between spatial point processes Auditorium, Kårhuset
12.10-13.40	Lunch
13.40-14.30	Gianfranco Lovison Categorical/categorized data in environmetrics Auditorium, Kårhuset
14.30-15.00	Coffee with fruit Centre for Mathematical Sciences
15.00-16.55	Contributed sessions
15.00-16.55	Contributed session: Climate 15.00 Lars Bärring, Stormy weather in southern Sweden 15:30 John Haslett, Bayesian palaeo-climate reconstruction (presented by Sourabh Bhattacharya) 16.00 Sourabh Bhattacharya, Importance Resampling MCMC: A methodology for Cross Validation in Inverse Problems 16.30 Thomas Gsponer, General State-Space Models for Evapotranspiration in Long-term Vegetation Succession Models Lecture hall A, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
15.00-16.25	Contributed session: Sampling 15.00 Renato Salvatore, Collecting agri-environmental data in farm structure sample surveys: a multivariate allocation model 15.30 Lisa Borges, Variance versus cost = statistician versus manager 16.00 Russell Alpizar-Jara, Distance sampling and measurement error models Lecture hall B, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
15.00-16.55	Contributed session: Ecology 15.00 Shojiro Tanaka, Models of Deforestation with Spatial Dependency by Human Population Interactions 15.30 Ullrika Sahlin, Analysis of forest field data from mixed forests with a spatial approach 16.00 Robert King, How well can we predict introduction success? 16.30 Gunnhildur Högnadóttir Steinbakk, A Bayesian hierarchical model for the population dynamics of the coastal cod with focus on model comparison for density dependence estimation Lecture hall C, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
19.00	Conference dinner Grand Hotel, city centre

Thursday June 19
09.00-12.10	TIES: Constructing and Evaluating Environmental Models
09.00-09.50	Marian Scott The model evaluation process: Lessons in statistical modelling applied to environmental modelling Auditorium, Kårhuset
10.00-10.50	Bruce Beck On procedures for reconciling models with observations: Still muddling through Auditorium, Kårhuset
10.50-11.20	Coffee Kårhuset
11.20-12.10	Peter Challenor The probability of thermohaline collapse and rapid climate change Auditorium, Kårhuset
12.10-12.20	Clive Anderson Conference closing Auditorium, Kårhuset

Invited Speakers

The following speakers are invited to give plenary or special lectures. The individual abstracts to the talks are accessible through the "ps" and "pdf" links.

For your convenience, all abstracts are available as a single document (ps, pdf, or as two-up 2up ps, 2up pdf [230-380kb]).

Bruce Beck, University of Georgia
On procedures for reconciling models with observations: Still muddling through (ps, pdf)
mbbeck@uga.edu

Mark Berliner, Ohio State University
Physical-statistical modeling and prediction (ps, pdf)
mb@stat.ohio-state.edu

Peter Challenor, Southampton Oceanography Centre
The Probability of Thermohaline Collapse and Rapid Climate Change (ps, pdf)
P.Challenor@soc.soton.ac.uk

Anders Grimvall, Linköping University
Environmental objectives, interim targets and assessment of goal achievement (ps, pdf)
angri@mai.liu.se

Peter Guttorp, University of Washington
Where is environmental statistics going? (ps, pdf)
peter@stat.washington.edu

Andreas Hense, Meteorologisches Institut, University of Bonn
On the use of statistics in complex weather and climate models (ps, pdf)
ahense@uni-bonn.de

Gudmund Høst, Norwegian Computing Service
Spatial and temporal aspects of modelling fish abundance (ps, pdf)
gudmund.host@nr.no
(Unfortunately Gudmund Høst had to cancel in the very last minute. This talk will be given by coauthor Anders Løland instead).

Åke Johansson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections (ps, pdf)
Ake.Johansson@smhi.se

Claudia Libiseller, Department of Mathematics, Linköping University
Model selection for ozone normalisation using regional-scale meteorological variables (ps, pdf)
cllib@mai.liu.se

Georg Lindgren, Lund University
Satellite surveillance and stochastic modelling of ocean conditions (ps, pdf)
georg@maths.lth.se

Gianfranco Lovison, University of Palermo
Categorical/categorized data in environmetrics (ps, pdf)
lovison@unipa.it

Antti Penttinen, University of Jyväskylä
Characterizing, modelling and interpreting spatial association between spatial point processes (ps, pdf)
penttine@stat.jyu.fi

Marian Scott, University of Glasgow
The model evaluation process: lessons in statistical modelling applied to environmental modelling (ps, pdf)
marian@stats.gla.ac.uk

Richard Smith, UNC Chapel Hill
Nonstationary spatial models in climatology and air pollution (ps, pdf)
rls@email.unc.edu

Jonathan Tawn, Lancaster University
Dependence issues in problems of environmental extremes (ps, pdf)
j.tawn@lancaster.ac.uk

Hans Wackernagel, Ecole des Mines de Paris
Selective geostatistics for environmental problems (ps, pdf)
wackernagel@cg.ensmp.fr

The International Environmetrics Society (TIES) Invited Sessions

For your convenience, all abstracts are available as a single document (ps, pdf, or as two-up 2up ps, 2up pdf [230-380kb]).

Constructing and Evaluating Environmental Models

Organizer: Marian Scott

Speakers	Title	Abstracts
Bruce Beck	On procedures for reconciling models with observations: Still muddling through	(ps, pdf)
Peter Challenor	The Probability of Thermohaline Collapse and Rapid Climate Change	(ps, pdf)
Marian Scott	The model evaluation process: lessons in statistical modelling applied to environmental modelling	(ps, pdf)

IMPACT - Estimation of Human Impact in the Presence of Natural Fluctuations

Organizer: Anders Grimvall

Speakers	Title	Abstracts
Andreas Hense	On the use of statistics in complex weather and climate models	(ps, pdf)
Claudia Libiseller	Model selection for ozone normalisation using regional-scale meteorological variables	(ps, pdf)
Hans Wackernagel	Selective geostatistics for environmental problems	(ps, pdf)
Anders Grimvall	Environmental objectives, interim targets and assessment of goal achievement	(ps, pdf)

Social Events

Excursion to Hven Island

On Tuesday afternoon an excursion is planned to Hven Island. On bicycles we will go to the observatory of Tycho Brahe. The fee for the excursion is 400 SEK and it includes bus and boat ticket, bicycle rent and dinner.

Conference Dinner

On Wednesday evening June 18, the conference dinner will be served in the dining-rooms of Grand Hotel in the center of Lund. The fee for the conference dinner is included in the conference fee.

Travel and Accommodation

Lund is an old university town in the very south of Sweden. This page contains information of how to find us and accommodation during the conference. General information about Lund is supplied by the tourist office.

How To Get Here

The Centre for Mathematical Sciences is a department of Lund University, in southern Sweden, Skåne (Scania), close to Denmark. The Centre is located in the building for mathematical sciences (or Mathematicum, marked with an F) at Lunds tekniska högskola / Lunds universitet (Lund Institute of Technology / Lund University), 1-2 km northeast of the center of Lund, at the intersection of Tornavägen and Sölvegatan, see the University campus map (200 kB pdf), and the map of the LTH campus, where the building is marked "MH".

We have gathered som information about how to travel by air, by train, and within Lund.

Arrival by plane

There are two airports close to Lund: one is Malmö (Sturup) Airport located 30 km south-east of Lund. The other one is Copenhagen Airport (Kastrup) in Denmark about 25 km south-west of Lund. Note that some travel agencies does not know that Lund is very close to Denmark and therefore they sometimes try to book you on to a flight to Gothenburg (3-4 hours away) or even Stockholm (5-7 hours away).

Kastrup (CPH), Copenhagen Airport, Denmark to Lund C

Most people traveling to Lund will come through Copenhagen Airport, Kastrup. As you will see from the air, the airport is next to the bridge to Sweden. From Copenhagen Airport trains across the bridge to Sweden (Öresundstågen) leave from platform 1 every 20 minutes (at 1:00-5:00 at night ones an hour) to Malmö C. Some of the trains continue to Lund C, but it might be that you have to change train in Malmö (purple commutor trains). From the airport to Lund, the travel time is about one hour. A one-way ticket (ask for a ticket to Lund) is approximately 80 DDK or 100 SEK (~11 EUR) and are sold at the ticket counters before going down the conveyer belt down to the trains. Most credit cards are also accepted. For an additional fee of 50 SEK, you can by the ticket on the train.

Sturup (MMX), Malmö Airport, Sweden to Lund C

Sturup has frequent connections with Stockholm (in case you transfer from there), Ryanair flyes to London, but otherwise there are few international flights. From the airport, there is a bus (Flygbussarna) to the centre of Lund (approximately twice an hour). A one-way ticket, bought on the bus, is 90 SEK (~10 EUR). A 30 minutes taxi ride into Lund is about 250 SEK (~27 EUR), but be sure to ask for the price before you take the taxi. There are unfortunately some non-serious drivers. Most taxis accepts credit cards (sometimes for a minor additional fee).

Arriving by train from elsewhere in Sweden

The train station in Lund is in the centre of Lund and is the station in Sweden with the most train arrivals and departures, with connections to all parts of Sweden.

Within Lund

Get to your hotel

Lund is a small city and almost everything is within walkable distance. To get to your hotel see the map below or catch a taxi outside the central station. Don't hesitate to ask someone in the street. Almost everyone knows English.

Get to the Centre for Mathematical Sciences

There are a few ways of to get from the train station (Lund C) to the department: See map below, and the map of the LTH campus (where the building is marked "MH") for details.

Walk:: To walk from the train station takes about 15-20 minutes. For guidance, see map to the right. Beautiful walk.
Taxi:: Ask for "Mattehuset", "Mathematicum", or "F-huset" close the "Old Water Tower", Sölvegatan 18.
Bus:: Bus nr 1 toward "Östra Torn", stop at "Tunavägen-LTH".
Bus nr 6 toward "Linero Centrum", stop at "Kårhuset".
Bus nr 20 toward "Brunnshög", stop at "Kårhuset".
From "Tunavägen-LTH", walk north, past the "M"-building, then turn left (west) past the lake. From "Kårhuset", follow the road "Sölvegatan" to the south-west, turn left (south) before you reach traffic lights. The building is located between to the west of a small lake (pond), and lies alongside the road "Tornavägen".

Map of Lund and the Centre of Mathematical Sciences

Map: (pdf, 260kb)

Accommodation

The conference hotels are:

Hotel Sparta, Tunav. 39, phone: +4646191600, fax: +4646128525
University Guest House, Tunav. 39, phone: +46 46-222 00 00, fax: +46 46-222 47 20

from which you reach the conference venue in a 5 minutes walk. See map above. Please tell them that you are a participant of SPRUCE VI. The Youth Hostel The Train close to Lund Central Station offers cheap compartments on board an an old train (see map above). Other accommodation facilities are listed by the tourist office.